Last Updated: September 19, 2024

Since this blog was written, palladium prices have shot up 20% and industry analysts expect a supply deficit. Increasing demand will support a bullish market for precious metals. This means that we can expect an increase in converter theft as the price steadily climbs.

Why are catalytic converter thefts decreasing? Money. A few years back, during the peak of the pandemic and amid global political unrest, the prices for precious metals found in converters—like palladium, platinum, and rhodium—skyrocketed, making these components hot commodities for thieves.

A recent study from Middle Tennessee State University highlights a direct correlation between the fluctuating prices of these metals and the incidence of thefts. While legislation and deterrence devices have made some impact on the levels of theft, for a thief, it simply comes down to this question -

“How much money can I make from this stolen converter?”

When the market value for these precious metals was sky high, any and all catalytic converters from pretty much any vehicle could fetch high prices, sometimes even over a thousand dollars. But with metal prices at their current level, thieves are becoming more selective and targeting vehicles with the best black market prices (is your vehicle on the top 10 stolen list?). Similar to investors timing the stock market, criminals track metal prices to pinpoint the most profitable times to strike.

While news about catalytic converter theft may not dominate headlines as it once did, the issue remains at rates significantly higher than historical norms, with random surges in theft leading to violent incidents. Although these extreme cases are less frequent, they highlight the ongoing risks associated with converter theft.

Will catalytic converter theft ever reach the same peaks from previous years? While this remains difficult to predict, the study by Middle Tennessee State University shows that a 10% increase in precious metal prices could result in a 20% increase in catalytic converter theft incidents. 

The market for precious metals is highly volatile and comes with many risks. Industry experts believe that metal prices have bottomed out and may climb again. With the mining industry struggling to keep pace with demand and some auto manufacturers shifting focus back from electric to gasoline and hybrid engines, the demand for these metals is poised to increase.

For vehicle owners, staying informed about metal market trends is crucial. In addition to staying informed, investing in a robust catalytic converter anti-theft device offers an immediate and reliable form of protection against potential thefts and market fluctuations.

Check out our Cat Shield Line-up and if you have any questions about fitment, contact us at support@millercat.com.